Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Spot analysis of Left tactics and preliminary COAs

Bottom line up front:
 
1.) Expose the basic contradictions of the Left's position by letting them "own" the fiscal crisis and confront them on their role in redefining (at a handsome profit) "culture" as it relates to the evil "gun culture."

2.) Expose the rifts between unions and various other factions and groups fighting for smaller pieces of the fiscal pie and sow discord within their ranks.

3.) Quietly abandon the institutional Republican Party to its fate and regroup under the Tea Party banner. Use this opportunity to observe the Left for vulnerabilities and plan to strike them, hard, at the opportune time.

4.) Define Conservatism in broad terms with which most reasonable people will agree by standing for liberty, civility and decency, personal responsibility, and living within our means as a society.

5.) Identify the proxies of the Left in the media, unions, and progressive "public interest" organizations and neutralize their messages. Find the corporate or other sources of their funding and pressure them without mercy.

The following is basically shooting from the hip, pending a detailed analysis of Alinsky and Gramsci.  But looking over the 36 Stratagems, it would seem that the prevailing pattern has been using Stratagems to Gain Ground and that the Left is in the process of switching to Stratagems for Direct Attack to press the advantage and gain ground against a confused and demoralized Conservative movement.  Although the balance of power is still nearly equivalent, the current advantages in morale and confidence of the Left puts it at a distinct relative advantage.  The Conservative side can hold its ground and begin regaining an advantage but needs time and space to consolidate to do so.  The Left realizes this and is pulling out all of the stops to prevent this from happening, break the will of the Conservative side, and try to rout them.

To review the 36 Stratagems:

Stratagems for the stronger force:

-Deceive the sky to cross the sea
-Besiege Wei to rescue Zhao
-Kill with a borrowed knife
-Wait at ease for the enemy
-Loot a burning house
-Make a feint to the east while attacking in the west

Stratagems for two equal forces:

-Create something out of nothing
-Use a well-known path to advance by a hidden path
-Watch the fire burning across the river
-Conceal a dagger in a smile
-Cut down the plum tree to save the peach tree
-Steal any passing goat

Stratagems for direct attack:

-Beat the grass to startle the snake
-Raise a corpse from the dead
-Lure the tiger out of the mountain
-Let the enemy off in order to snare him
-Hold out a brick to attract a gem
-To catch rebels, bring down their leader first

Stratagems to confuse the enemy:

-Take away the fire from under the cauldron
-Fish in troubled waters
-The cicada sheds its skin
-Bolt the door to catch the thief
-Befriend a distant state while attacking a neighbor
-Borrow a route to conquer Guo

Stratagems to gain ground:

-Replace the beams and pillars with rotten timber
-Point at the mulberry only to curse the locust
-Feigning foolishness
-Remove the ladder after the ascent
-Putting fake blossoms on the tree
-Host and guest reversed

Stratagems before the last stand:

-Beauty trap
-Empty city ploy
-Use the enemy's spies to sow discord in the enemy's camp
-Inflict injury on oneself to win the enemy's trust
-Interlocking stratagems
-He who runs away live to fight another day

Stratagems to Gain Ground as executed by the Left over the past 50 years should be quite obvious, in retrospect.  As I am more interested in current trends and developing patterns, I will not discuss this further and instead analyze emerging patterns consistent with Stratagems for Direct Attack.  A good general analysis can be found here:  http://www.badukworld.co.kr/biz/lesson2/36.html#ATTACK  I will attempt to translate these into a specific analysis of the problem at hand.

Beat the grass to startle the snake--The intent is to get the opponent to reveal his mindset, goals, or vulnerabilities.  Essentially a series of probing attacks against the enemy lines.  We see this happening now with the increasing calls for gun control legislation and "spontaneous" protests at NRA headquarters in Washington DC, along with news reports of the NRA being "silent" on the tragedy at Sandy Hook.  This also serves the same purpose as suppressive fire on the battlefield, making the enemy keep his head down while the aggressor moves forces into position to attack from an unexpected direction.

Raise a corpse from the dead--This is raising a "puppet", either in the form of a "loyal opposition" as I believe to be the Left's desired end state for the Republican Party, or putting out empty slogans to gain support and distract while moving to gain advantage.  This has been the Left's stock in trade for decades.  "Gun culture" and "Free healthcare" come to mind.

Lure the tiger out of the mountain--Draw out a formidable foe and make him fight on your prepared ground.  The Left has correctly assessed that the Conservative movement still has much power and many strengths.  The intent is to isolate and publicly bloody one of those nodes of strength by picking a fight.  Should they prove victorious, it will be another warning for others to keep their heads down.  Right now, Target No. 1 is the NRA.  Look for the tainting and invective to increase, hoping for a mistake or slip of the tongue to paint them, and Conservatives as a whole, as selfish, hateful brutes.

Let the enemy off to snare him--In this context, the fight over gun control will be used as a hammer from which the institutional Republicans will want to escape.  If you have an enemy cornered expect him to fight like hell and get badly bloodied in the process.  Leave a seeming means of escape and at some point, he will break.  Leave a route open only to have your enemy walk into a "fire sack" where he must then face the choice of utter annihilation or surrender.  With that in hand, opposition to debt reduction, spending cuts, and various entitlement programs will cease.

Hold out the brick to attract the gem--Put out a message of something reasonable and mundane to get people to buy into the program.  In this case, "balanced approach",   "increased taxes on the top earners", "safer schools with gun control" and so forth will resonate with a cowed American populace.  As the population goes with it, they unwittingly trade their freedoms for the empty promise of security and control by the Left.

To catch rebels, bring down their leader first--The conspiratorial side of me (which I try to avoid indulging) has two words: David Petraeus.  This is one advantage of a decentralized organization such as the Tea Party,  but there will be no lack of effort in trying by the Left.  Look for increased attacks against the Republican leadership, traditional organizations such as the Christian Church and the Boy Scouts of America, and private organizations like Chick Fil-A.

Frankly, I would love to go toe-to-toe with these bastards, smash them in the fucking mouth with the same stratagems, and stop them cold in their tracks.  Unfortunately, we have long had a gutless leadership within the Conservative movement and we have ceded the ground to the specious but persuasive arguments of the Left in the eyes of the American public.  No sense considering this except for "jabs" to spoil their momentum.  Instead, buying time to get out of the traps they are setting and regrouping is in order.  Let us consider Stratagems to Confuse the Enemy:  http://www.badukworld.co.kr/biz/lesson2/36.html#CONFUSE

Take away the fire from under the cauldron--The key is to sap the enemy's will and momentum.  The Left is pressing its advantage with what is really a very narrow and limited mandate by the American voters.  In the intermediate to long term, an effective strategy will be to let the Left "own" the mess they are creating by voting "present", as Rand Paul has recently suggested for the congressional budget negotiations.  Find ways to increase friction and inefficiencies within the systems they are creating and their gray Socialist machine will grind to a halt that much sooner.  In the short term, counterattack aggressively and put the Left on the defensive.  "You want to address 'gun culture'?  Fine.  You support a culture that glorifies and gives tremendous profit motive to violence, crude behavior, and childish outbursts and that depersonalizes human beings into 'aggrieved groups'--things?  The stinking mess that you have made out of the culture is the problem.  What are you going to do about it?"

Fish in troubled waters--Locate the sources of discord in the enemy's camp, and use that as an opportunity to illustrate a strong, principled alternative leadership.  In the case of the Left, their supporters have been promised more spoils and goodies than they will ever get.  We are already seeing the cracks form with looming problems such as pensions and health care coverage.  While the Left tries to paper it over, there is increasing resentment toward unions, particularly public-sector unions, who are grabbing to get the biggest share possible for the diminishing pool of resources.  As this resource pool shrinks in an accelerating fashion, these fractures will come to the surface.  We need to anticipate this and get into position now to hammer them, show the American people the flaws and deception that led to this, and present a reasoned alternative.  Conservatism, in its purest form, works. 

The cicada sheds its skin--Gauge your opponents expectations and use them to advantage.  The Left sees the Republican Party as the main political force to be defeated and the Tea Party movement as a puppet of the party's corporate backers.  The first perception is correct, but the second regarding the Tea Party is not.  Right now, the institutional Republican Party presents a staggering, confused, and clearly identifiable target.  The Tea Party, on the other hand, remains an independent grassroots movement.  An effective strategy would be to use the Republican Party to draw fire while its members escape, regroup, rearm, and reconstitute under the Tea Party banner or something similar.  From there, either reclaim the Republican Party or start with something new.

Bolt the door to catch the thief--In other words, find where the enemy will over-commit and then be ready with a devastating counterattack.  What does the Left fear most?  I suppose that it could be being caught in the lie that increased taxes, increased regulation, and increased government will bring increased prosperity.  So let them strut off of the edge of the "fiscal cliff", and instead of yelling "Wait! Stop! No More!" and capitulate, hand them a big rock to keep them company on the way down by voting "Present."  95 years of Socialism can't be wrong....  See how they react to that, turn the tables, and start hammering them again on "culture."

Befriend a distant state while attacking a neighbor--In other words, don't keep making unnecessary enemies!  This is something that the Conservative movement has been piss-poor at for years.  The good news is that as the Left presses home its agenda, a lot of people who have supported them to this point are realizing that much of what is in the works is not what they signed on for.  Identify those individuals and groups with which they may be affiliated, talk with them, listen to what they want, and incorporate those wishes into a broader alternative plan.  This requires a willingness to listen, truly consider other viewpoints, and make principled compromises.  By defining our base too narrowly, the Conservative movement has denied itself the ability to build coalitions to achieve victory.  This worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980 when he won over the conservative Democrats.  If we ensure that our goal is to protect, enrich, and prosper the American people and NOT to hew in lockstep to a rigid ideology, whatever its merits, the American voters will fall in behind us and we can begin to turn the tide of statism and chart a course back to responsible individual liberty.

Borrow a route to conquer Guo--This is a stratagem that the Left has used against us with great success over the years.  In political terms, find a proxy or middleman to do much of the hard fighting while conserving your resources.  The Left has a huge advantage with the unions, the mainstream media, and armies of progressive lawyers to make life miserable for conservatives and advance their agenda, particularly on the cultural front.  Realistically, we cannot gain ground and reverse this situation within a useful timeframe.  Instead, it is best to identify the proxies being used against us and find ways to neutralize them.  Frustrate, expose, and embarrass them at every turn.  This is what Andrew Breitbart did.

So, rough, ready, and certainly imperfect, but there you have it.

In summary:

1.) Expose the basic contradictions of the Left's position by letting them "own" the fiscal crisis and confront them on their role in redefining (at a handsome profit) "culture" as it relates to the evil "gun culture."

2.) Expose the rifts between unions and various other factions and groups fighting for smaller pieces of the fiscal pie and sow discord within their ranks.

3.) Quietly abandon the institutional Republican Party to its fate and regroup under the Tea Party banner.  Use this opportunity to observe the Left for vulnerabilities and plan to strike them, hard, at the opportune time.

4.) Define Conservatism in broad terms with which most reasonable people will agree by standing for liberty, civility and decency, personal responsibility, and living within our means as a society.

5.) Identify the proxies of the Left in the media, unions, and progressive "public interest" organizations and neutralize their messages.  Find the corporate or other sources of their funding and pressure them without mercy.

Run these set of stratagems in reverse: "Confuse", the switch to "Direct Attack" and press it home aggressively.

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